CS Team Rankings - August 31 2023
My biased take at a ranking of CS teams, partially based on empirical data and partially based on my own proclivities.
What, Why, How?
Before I answer that, I’d like you to follow my Twitter. It’s impossible for me to answer every question that’s in your mind in one article, but if you tweet it at me the odds are certainly in your favour.
Put simply, the popular ranking systems like HLTV (and now Valve) all use formulas and data of a team’s results to give your favourite teams a number to get mad about every week. I’ve spent my fair share of time defending the HLTV rankings, as they are really nothing more than a rolling window power ranking which is largely results-based (what else could you do with formulas alone?), but there have been plenty of instances where I have thought I could do it better. This is the first instance of what is hopefully a recurring series where before and/or after big LAN events, I give my opinion on who’s the best, who’s contending for the top spots, and who is scraping by, as well as some honourable mentions from time to time.
That’s the what and the why - as for how, I’ll be using a complex AI system that nobody else has access to, known as my “brain”. It’s capable of interfacing with visual information and statistics and it will give words as output, so I hope it works.
The Ranking
Trophy Contenders - Vitality and G2
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the winners of the most notable events of the calendar in the Major, Katowice and Cologne end up on the top of the ranking. However, many people would call putting G2 so high an incorrect assessment given their inconsistency, so I’ll explain my assessment of them first.
G2 (#2)
G2’s system, whether you believe it exists or not, should always be to put NiKo and m0NESY in the best positions possible to deliver. Their victory at Katowice was through event-long overperformances from jks and huNter-, who are certainly great players for their roles but in this team are not meant to be the ones with the MVPs. This time in Cologne, however, it was NiKo and m0NESY fighting for the MVP, which leads me to believe they’ve got some part of their system figured out.
Put it this way - you shouldn’t be able to rely on your supportive players overperforming, but on some level you SHOULD be able to rely on NiKo dropping great stats, and as m0NESY improves through the years the same will no doubt apply to him. The downside is of course the HooXi discussion. I had a thread about him before their Cologne win, and most of the same applies despite that victory - you can count on him to go missing in a big way individually. His calling has improved, and with the skill he has on his team it doesn’t take much improvement for there to be results, which is part of why I believe G2 is still a top contender.
Vitality (#1)
Vitality are easier to explain at the moment. A slight stumble against a strong ENCE in Cologne while bedding in your newest player flameZ is excusable considering their Major win and otherwise excellent grand final appearances and trophy lifts recently. In the past 6 months, they have lost 5 Bo3s - one to G2, two to ENCE, one to Heroic, and a freak loss to Imperial in the Banana BLAST Washington event that they still reached the grand final of.
Comparing firepower between these two contenders will actually lead you to believe that Vitality might have the strongest individuals out of anyone with ZywOo and Spinx as a strong duo and flameZ and Magisk being some of the most overqualified anchor players out there, similar in some ways to the four riflers of G2. However, apEX is currently providing alright output for an IGL and comparing him to HooXi would be a favourable comparison for the French leader - maybe the stronger firepower floor is what is giving Vitality the extra boost at the moment.
Out of these two teams I would put more faith in Vitality event to event, but for something like Katowice 2024 I would not be surprised if G2 somehow look like they are dominant again and in any case both teams go into EPL as favourites to win for me.
Always A Bridesmaid, Never The Bride
These two teams have been compared to each other, for better and for worse. Both have individual players not of the calibre of those around them, and are defined by an IGL who many had given up on before they reached their recent peaks. You don’t feel confident that they will win, but you know they should be “the best” - it’s just a matter of time, right? …Right?
ENCE (#3)
Snappi has done an incredible job coming up with game plans, mid round tactics, style, you name it - there’s a reason people wish he was on G2 right now. But he’s on ENCE, and without him they would not be on a grand final streak of four events.
NertZ has shown he is capable of great heights but is not stable enough to be relied upon when the team collapses in the pressure cooker of the final - and he’s still their best rifler. SunPayus has instead taken up the mantle of “big game player”, but he’s not invulnerable as the G2 final showed us the reality behind the facade of strong performances against Vitality. That leaves Maden and dycha who are what I call “role players” (not that I claim to have invented the term, far from it). They’re going to try to do the same thing in every game, and if you’re lucky you get a big performance from them, but it’s not consistent.
All that is to say that ENCE are the de facto best team, but simply cannot be trusted in the grand final. I have doubts with respect to how long this success can last as well; if Heroic, who will get discussed subsequently, are anything to go by, it’s entirely possible that ENCE will only be a top team for another season. They’ve proven they are no longer the plucky underdogs, and in fact play the best CS right now - so what is left for them to accomplish other than to actually step up and BE the best? They’re a fan favourite, because they’ve been underrated for so long; it’s only fair that once they are actually in the position to be on top, they get criticised for not finishing the job just like Heroic do (and if they break through, praised just as strongly!).
Heroic (#4)
Right now, cadiaN is looking at ENCE’s inability to win the biggest games and saying “first time?”. Heroic have gotten much worse than people give them credit for, because the games they win give everyone the strongest copium hit that it’s finally time for them to dominate the whole way through. It used to be the case that they would dumpster every team until it got to the high stakes game at the end, and then they’d choke but still put up some fight and show a glimpse of potential.
Even with their season ending in triumph at BLAST, is anyone convinced? I’m not, that’s for sure. It’s especially egregious that the event they won was the one they went on the media tour saying things like “We haven't won a grand final in a long time. I don't really expect us to do that again”. In a meta where the top teams are defined by their individuals, Heroic continue to push their own unique system; but if the individuals simply don’t play the same under pressure, the system still fails regardless.
I’ve talked about stavn being one of the worst players in elimination maps and it’s a conversation that never ends. A roster move to increase firepower would involve taking some time to reset the system and move things around - when Heroic added jabbi before IEM Cologne 2022, they went out in last place. Despite that it feels like the reality is Heroic’s period of fantastic form is being replaced with a period of mediocre form and the hope of something more being created is slowly being lost.
They’re a playoffs lock despite all the criticism, and maybe if they go to the Himalayas and meditate for a month straight they can fix their mental issues without roster changes. But I’ve stopped hoping for them to find a solution, and maybe you should too.
In The Mix/Dark Horses
Now that we are past the best of the best, it’s time to look at the worst of the best. These teams could catch on fire and steal a high placing from the teams above them, and if one of them is your favourite you might still be able to say “just give them time” without being delusional beyond reasonable doubt.
Virtus.Pro (#5)
This might be my most controversial take yet. I think VP is better than FaZe, NaVi, C9, and it might sound like I’m crazy - and I think I am.
It’s been a tumultuous period for Jame’s team ever since their Major win. They didn’t qualify to Paris and couldn’t defend their Major title amidst a shocking last minute replacement and subsequent removal of KaiR0N-, and since then have been trying to sell Qikert while he stands in for an injured n0rb3r7 all while integrating mir into the roster somehow.
Jame’s ultra passive, iconic (perhaps infamous) style was actually at it’s best before their Major win in my opinion. While they were consistent during that time and that high floor was what got them the Rio Major, they were better with an element of anomalous aggression like YEKINDAR to make their opponents even more uncomfortable. It’s too soon to say for sure that mir will be that piece, but I have a lot of faith in Jame to pull it together once the roster is stable.
I’ve got to address the current reality - they haven’t necessarily shown good results lately, but their wins with different players standing in also don’t reflect the true potential. FL1T is a fantastic rifler and fame has his moments as well, and all of this is ignoring the everlasting Jame AWP. Expect more from this team once they stop their own little rostermania - you might not like their style but they’ll make you respect their skill.
FaZe (#6)
I really wanted to put this team lower, as strange as that sounds. The eye test looks rough and the form is simply not there for FaZe ever since they managed to get their Grand Slam in EPL earlier this year.
Despite that, they still have an insane ceiling that warrants their position here. I think there’s not much to say about them that hasn’t been said already - great individuals, great calling, clutch at the late stages of maps and matches. These were what made FaZe the best team in the world a year ago.
It’s now the second season of 2023 and FaZe is probably about 75% as good as they were back then. Close wins turned into close losses, and recently they even got blown out on a few maps which was very uncharacteristic. The masterful lurks from ropz turned into a baiting festival (and somehow he doesn’t get called names as often as blameF does despite baiting better players than what blameF did for the past years), broky and Twistzz go missing, rain doesn’t overperform, and karrigan is at times worse than HooXi individually.
If you put them in the grand final as a direct invite they would probably still win some of them - their problem is all the games before the grand final pose the greatest threat to them, and they have the least motivation to play them. However, I feel no sympathy for the excuse of “no motivation”. Burnout I can accept - the schedule can get to anyone. But hearing players on FaZe talk about how they didn’t feel the drive to win after their accomplishments is just a bad sign for the future, unless CS2 rekindles it for a little bit.
I haven’t discussed the RobbaN/NEO situation yet, but I also really have nothing to say other than the obvious; that he clearly brought a mental aspect to their game that is presently absent, and that NEO is just a merch model standing in the back wondering if he should say something.
Astralis (#7)
There’s a lot to like if you’re an Astralis fan right now, especially since HUNDEN and Kasper Hvidt are gone. device looks like he never left, blameF has done alright with calling so far, and Buzz had some nice performances in Cologne. That being said, this lineup is clearly still too flawed to be anything more than a dark horse.
For a support player, b0rup is pretty underwhelming at his job. It feels like he would rather be doing something else, but has been shoehorned into the worst roles again and again and is silently accepting it despite the performances so far. Buzz and Staehr are not reliable yet, despite some decent games so far. There’s no question about device and blameF, and they are the reason why this team is still rated highly despite having three players who would probably have been on Copenhagen Flames if they weren’t bankrupt.
I don’t see them doing better than this - until a roster move, they’ll just stay a quarterfinalist, and it’s not worth discussing.
Lost In The Sauce
This is a special category for some special teams that are trying to cook a nine course meal and are presently struggling to find the right recipe and ingredients.
Cloud9 (#8)
The Russian super-team didn’t get off to the strongest start. It’s rare to have expectations from the beginning of a team’s creation, but some teams should have that kind of pressure placed on them and this is one of those cases.
So far, sh1ro and Perfecto both look like they’re as good as they always have been - but they were the only players I had zero doubts about. Ax1Le, though he missed most of Cologne, has looked pretty rough to start with; HObbit and electroNic seem perfectly average which is great for the IGL but not so great for whatever role HObbit fills in this team right now.
It brings up an interesting question - previously, HObbit joined the Gambit Youngsters core to bolster their experience and was still individually capable. Now, electroNic and Perfecto bring more than enough experience, and HObbit shouldn’t be in the worst roles as a result of the best support player joining his team. So what is he actually doing if he isn’t performing?
Top 8 isn’t bad by any means for a new lineup - and if they fix their problems they are instantly a world beater. It’s just a reflection of how I see them right now - they don’t know what style to play, how much input groove should have on the coaching side, how to make their riflers comfortable, and so on. I’m giving them time, but making it clear there’s things to work on.
NaVi (#9)
This is another “super-team” - and I say that with quotation marks because it’s not very super on paper or in the server. The only main positive is that b1t seems to have found some firepower in between the chaos of a new language, style, and teammates.
Starting with the new additions - jL and iM. The former seems fine so far, if a little inconsistent - but he’s not supposed to be the strongest rifler on the team and if he can play anchor spots and support his team, I don’t mind it. iM is where the doubt creeps in. The Major showed us an incredible ceiling and what was perhaps a combination of iM’s game sense, decision making, and siuhy’s calling, but none of that has sprouted yet on NaVi for him.
Let’s get this out of the way - Aleksib needs time with this team. It’s a new international project where half of the team including the coach haven’t been speaking English; if he gets cut before the next Major, I’ll be disappointed. His calling seems fine so far but I think a little more flexibility would go a long way, especially with iM who thrived on the freedom which he may be yearning for right now.
The elephant in the room is s1mple. In both meanings - simply, s1mple is no longer the best player in the world this year. He’s probably still a top 5 player of the year, and will always be able to go nuclear - but aside from that magical possibility, he’s on par with the m0NESY/sh1ro’s of the world now, whereas players like ZywOo and NiKo are a cut above everyone else in 2023. It’s still a great thing to have a top 5 player on your team, but even with him in insane form NaVi still required a strong team behind him for success - it’ll be even harder now.
I’m waiting to see what happens in EPL - the sample size will help gauge the direction of many teams, despite the length of the tournament being overbearing. For now, they’re firmly within the top 10 but aren’t ready for those big games.
Honourable Mention?
Spirit (#10)
No, I’m not joking - Spirit are back. Thanks to the addition of the rising star donk (and with the benefit of seeing him defeat VP on LAN and demonstrate a staggering 0.99 KpR throughout the Serbian LAN), chopper’s Spirit Squadron is back in a big way. They don’t get the same opportunities as partnered teams do (for now), so I’ll recognise them here.
The talent on donk is unreal. No two ways about it - watch his games to understand there is true skill on display. We haven’t seen him play against a variety of teams on LAN yet, but I would already put them above teams like Liquid, fnatic, MOUZ, etc. Everyone is eager to see them be tested thoroughly, and I can’t wait!
Afterword
There are a lot of teams around and after that #10 mark - it becomes impossible to distinguish them without spending ages on the minute details and in the end it comes down to personal preference. I chose to feature the rising talents in Spirit, but it would’ve been easy to say “fnatic are going to get it together” or “MOUZ have potential”. If your favourite team is wrongly placed or not here at all, definitely yell at me on Twitter about it - that’ll result in a fruitful conversation.
I’ve been really busy but I didn’t want to skip a month - hopefully it’ll be easier in the future! This kind of article is also well suited to podcast/video style, but as I’m not on camera yet, it’ll be a little harder to make it a good video - still, I think there’s room for it.
Thank you for reading :D
P.S. Yes, the pistol round article will come out soon…surely. In the meantime, voo made a video about pistol rounds!