CS2: IEM Cologne 2024 - Framing And Preview
Providing context and framing for each team vying for one of the four most important trophies of a CS2 calendar year.
Preamble
There are four trophies each year that we grant almost no excuses for - Katowice, Cologne, and the two Majors. In previous years, Cologne was not necessarily timed at the start of the second season as it is now, and as a result was valued by some as slightly more prestigious than Katowice since it often concluded a season.
Now and for the foreseeable future, Cologne and Katowice both start a season, while the Majors finish them - so I view them both equally as the most prestigious trophy one can win in lieu of a Major. NiKo’s legacy as a CS:GO player is still tarnished by the lack of Major trophy, but despite the circumstances in which he won them (carried by supportive elements in Katowice, for instance), his triumphs in both arenas recovers some of that lost pride. Even now, people remember past victors from a decade ago - as a result of their frequent status as Majors, casual fans often believe they are one and the same.
It’s easy to retroactively justify things after the trophy’s been lifted. You can explain yourself with the benefit of knowing the outcome and thus can reason yourself into a position that aligns with the existing reality. Instead, I opt to stake my claims here ahead of time, so that in a few weeks when we know the victor, I don’t have to pretend that it made sense to me all along.
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Why do I care about Cologne?
Before we go through each team (some briefly, some in detail) I think it is prudent to ask a question that is perhaps so obvious nobody asks it - why is this trophy elevated so highly? There are obvious reasons to value it, but here are some of mine.
The format is fairly robust for the main stage of the event. Two groups of eight play a double elimination bracket, seeded fairly accurately, with zero best of ones, creating a six team playoffs that culminates in a best of five. I would prefer more than six teams, and I’m not a proponent of the upper bracket final that provides direct entry into the semi-finals - it can give teams like MOUZ, who have not proven themselves in the big stage, inflated results due to group stage overperformances. That being said, everything else makes enough sense to make it a non-issue for me (and the play-ins have also removed Bo1s!).
You hear the word “legacy” thrown around a lot, but I think it still applies here. The fact that legendary players (olofmeister, coldzera, device, s1mple) have almost always lifted the trophy gives new players who admired the previous trophy lifters a direct goal. The effect of that is it’s one of the few events in a year where you can reasonably believe that every player is trying their best to win, which is one of the most frustrating things to hear in other events. To digest a trough of excuses in each post-match interview is irritating when you’re trying to make sense of a result; Cologne often avoids the bulk of this, and teams accept their losses easier when they know they gave it their all.
The final reason I’ll bring up is the combination of a best of five and a relatively unbiased crowd. It’s hard to get a perfect split, but Cologne pulls enough of a variety of fans to appease me on this issue, and I’m a huge believer in best of fives (even with the old CS:GO game length). Apart from a perma-ban, a team should be willing to play every other map in order to win the best trophies out there. Not only does it test tactical breadth and depth for the leaders, it tests endurance for the individuals. You won’t see anything quite like the end of map five of IEM Cologne 2022 every time, but the mere possibility of it gives me plenty of energy.
The Play-In Teams
Random European Team #412 - BIG, ALTERNATE aTTaX, SAW, BetBoom
Germans might not like the fact that both of their teams playing their home event are being categorised as forgettable. The fact of the matter is I believe none of these teams can do anything and in fact have no real reason to believe they even make it past the play-in stage.
BIG’s addition of rigoN may provide them with some degree of x-factor rifle power, but as long as syrsoN remains on the roster, they have a serious liability that will handicap them time and time again. I cannot get excited for this team, which is a shame since the rifle core (Krimbo, JDC, tabseN) are all very talented in their role and in a better world would likely be in a stronger international team. Krimbo and tabseN chose this life, however - and I’m willing to let them slowly bury their careers trying to maintain regional representation. Don’t even get me started on ATN aTTaX - I would have nothing to say.
SAW at least have BERRY who may provide tactical upgrades but this team is stuck as an upset squad. They have no logical upgrade path in their region as far as I can tell, but that’s fine! Not every team has to be world beaters, and I’m sure while Portugal would love them to be better, they can accept the state of affairs. I don’t see them making it out of the play-in, though.
BetBoom are just a team that’s being propped up by online grinding and surreptitious invites to tournaments hosted by themselves. I was actually a defender of nafany for a little while when he was being blamed for C9’s problems - I thought sh1ro and the coach should share some blame for not shifting the style if it wasn’t working. However, he has done nothing with these players and a team like this will simply disappear into the aether in 2025’s competitive circuit and certainly inspires nothing in me now.
South America’s Got Talent
I’ll freely admit I don’t spend much time watching the likes of paiN, 9z, MIBR, and Imperial apart from their big event appearances. From my perspective, they take turns deciding who will have the overperformance that inspires faith in the region, but none of them have found consistency yet.
9z looked good in Dallas but their ranking is certainly a little inflated and I would be cautious believing in a repeat performance - and while Imperial now have try, they suffer from the same consistency issues. MIBR seem content with their current status given their roster has been together for a year and shows no signs of true improvement. You could roll a dice and choose which one of these teams will make it out of this stage of the event - because one of them probably will.
FURIA, on the other hand, should make it through regardless. KSCERATO is still an elite rifler who chooses to be led by a 33 year old AWPer who is still somehow not that bad as far as domestic AWPers go, and skullz is serviceable, especially when he isn’t speaking English. They’ll run out of chances in the main event but against the likes of Imperial in their opening game and other potential future matchups, I think they’ll survive.
A Tale Of Two APACs
As the resident Asian CS enjoyer, FlyQuest and The MongolZ have two different places in my mind.
MongolZ have proved their floor is strong enough to maintain a ranking. So much so that at this point my expectation is that they make a big event playoffs in this season, despite the apparent difficulty of that claim. Teams in and around the top 10 position often secure at least one berth every now and then, and this is the logical progression for The MongolZ. I’m personally no longer satisfied with a pedestrian group stage where they lose a winnable game and maintain a stable position - it’s time to elevate their game. It goes without saying I see them making the main stage of the event.
FlyQuest on the other hand have always disappointed me. Their first failure at the Major qualifier could be chalked up to lack of practice and complacency playing in Australia, and they had a few half decent runs last season, but nothing special. I still believe dexter is not as bad as the public would have you believe, but there’s only so many theoretical loopholes I can jump through to justify my belief. They have a bootcamp in Europe - if they don’t make it through the opening stage now, with enough time to fully implement dexter’s ideas, then this team will truly never go anywhere - and I don’t even feel confident they make it.
Safe Play-In Teams
HEROIC (if they finally get to play with degster) will have no problems making it through the play-in stage, and indeed I think they can fight for a playoffs spot. They have fairly strong individuals and leadership, but have not been able to properly fight with their full roster and this is the time to do so.
Falcons and Eternal Fire are both equally uninteresting teams when it comes to ceiling - I don’t see either making the playoffs and yet I see no reason they can’t make the main stage. Enough has been said about how Falcons underwhelm on high salaries and I don’t think it bears repeating - they’ll no doubt buy a talent eventually but until then feel free to treat Falcons like a top 15 team. Eternal Fire’s ceiling was reached in that Major playoffs attempt and they aren’t getting much better. They face each other in the opening match but I still believe both teams can make it through and maybe even get one win in the main stage before crashing out.
North America’s Finest…?
Complexity have tried time and time again to show they have a game beyond EliGE fragging out against top teams, and it’s been repeat mediocrity. Mediocrity is good! It will ensure your Major sticker funds and get you through to the main stage of Cologne. That’s about it. No playoffs, no upgrade from a team perspective - just a 9-12th and a post game interview stating “we are disappointed in our results”.
Liquid is an enigma. Twistzz IGL, unknown ultimate AWPer, and the return of jks in CS2 - and yet with the rifle core of this team, I don’t see why this team can’t make it straight to the main stage. I think that’s at least what should happen, and any prediction further would result in me releasing my inner jks fan, so I won’t claim they win any more than that, but I’ll wait for a good series before I post his rating and pretend this is what he does every game.
Main Event Teams
It gets interesting now - thanks to fairly reasonable seeding, the teams in the main stage are the top eight ranked teams in the world. Let’s give each team a little run down since we’ve made it this far.
Astralis
In my podcast, The Brain Jar, I made it clear that I don’t think this Astralis team is real. I have doubts about how well device calls in high pressure circumstances and I think this team is stuck at a quarter/semi finalist spot. Credit should be given to stavn and jabbi for improving and slowly shedding the perspective that they are not capable of playing the same on the stage, but as a team, I still think they are a roster move away from title contenders.
Virtus.pro
Considering I once predicted VP to win the second Major of 2024, their recent shakiness has given me reason to doubt - but I’m doubling down. Amidst interview comments that Jame is open to switching IGLs (ludicrous, by the way), and discussions about meshing electronic’s styles and preferences with Jame’s established system, I think the long break and time together will give them enough to figure it out. I expect VP to make the playoffs and would place them winning the entire event as an outside chance - they’ve never had a particularly wide map pool, so a best of five won’t be their strength. Regardless, I still believe in their firepower and am gambling that they’ve solved whatever leadership struggle was going on internally, especially with a new coach.
FaZe
FaZe are still consistent enough to make playoffs, but I’ve lost faith in their ability to win trophies. Their previously consistent star in ropz has been fairly average compared to his expectations, and while I give karrigan a lot of leeway with regards to prioritisation of events, it doesn’t mean I can just ignore the flaws in their game if it’s not a prestige event. FaZe are still the gatekeepers of tier 1 trophies and they will put up a fight, but this team has always won by a matter of percentages in game - and their current state tells me they are on the “barely lose” side instead of the “barely won” side.
G2
Where do I begin? Do I start with Snax, one of the weakest IGLs in recent history, who only joined this team because he isn’t HooXi? Or perhaps TaZ, who hasn’t yet justified his presence as a coach? The unfortunate malbsMd, who is stuck playing anchor roles as a young star while huNter attempts to rekindle old flames as a rotator?
G2 are an enigma. They have the best player in the world (or second best, if you are a donk believer), and an incredibly strong rifler in NiKo. I have no reason to say this team doesn’t simply end up in last place and yet I feel that as soon as I utter those words, they will find miracle form and make a deep run. I personally believe they won’t last against a top team now that people are aware they are still a threat, but this team is impossible to predict. I honestly hope they do go out in last place so we can have some narrative cohesion for once in this team’s trajectory.
Vitality
The floor of this team is strong enough to guarantee playoffs almost every time. My real problems with this team start with playoffs appearances where they seem unable to put the final step forward and actually win.
There’s no reason that a team with ZywOo, flameZ, and Spinx can’t simply brunt force stomp squads even in playoffs - but there’s more to CS than firepower and this team proves it. apEX still isn’t an elite IGL to me no matter how loudly he yelled after his recent Major trophy, and XQTZZZ has been sitting quietly behind them without much proof of activity. Someone needs to unlock this team’s potential.
My opinion has always been that apEX taking rotator roles is fundamentally flawed and unless they get a better anchor or take him off of those roles, I don’t believe this team can consistently win trophies. As a result, I think they cap out at playoffs once more.
MOUZ
Another team who can’t get it done in playoffs, but this time I don’t think there’s one specific point of failure. MOUZ are a young team and as disparate individuals I believe many of them can elevate teams - think of siuhy and/or Jimpphat joining G2, for instance. However, I believe it to be a rarity that a team, after not winning a crowd event while still being so skilled, is able to pull it together.
Drawing parallels to old cadiaN-led HEROIC rosters, I think this MOUZ team just doesn’t have what it takes to win a trophy in front of a crowd. They simply don’t play the same, from the leadership down to the individuals. Expect a group stage domination followed by a so-so playoffs appearance.
Spirit
Spirit looked fresh to end the last season and their game has been becoming more diverse. In the first place, their Katowice trophy was the story of donk breaking records, but it was supported by a strong foundation and that core has been getting stronger. I’ve seen zontix tighten up his game and sh1ro is slowly becoming better at fragging when donk has a slower start. My only point of concern with this team is chopper’s calling and fragging, but as long as hally can chime in when required, it may not be a dealbreaker.
If I have to choose a team to win this event I’ll choose Spirit. In a rigorous format where each victory is well earned, I don’t see another team that will be able to match them, especially since I think they want to prove they are here to stay.
Natus Vincere
If they didn’t win the last LAN they played and make the grand finals right before that, most people would be writing NaVi off as a Major overperformer who should make a roster move. Instead, we have to entertain the prospect that they are the best team in the world, as if the heavy reliance on teamplay and lack of clear star player are just going to disappear.
Make no mistake - Aleksib and B1ad3 are world class. The fact they have won with these players says it all. It doesn’t mean that they are going to consistently win, and indeed I would bet against them lifting this trophy.
As talented as the calling is on this team, nobody is perfect. I have to ask the question “who steps up if the calls aren’t working?”, and my answers are not pretty - w0nderful isn’t capable of carrying when called upon despite his individual potential, and the rifle core seemingly turns to jL in big stage games. He is talented but not enough to dig this team out of ditches and he isn’t in the positions to push the needle when the playbook stutters.
This team has also been together for a long time at this point and thus has a lot of tape for analysts to produce dossiers on. I expect teams to be ready for NaVi and for their lack of star player to be their downfall in a serious tournament like Cologne. I honestly believe they will have a hard time qualifying for playoffs amidst the competition, and may go out 7-8th.
Conclusion
We’ve gone through every team, and I’ve given my thoughts on their standings.
Cologne this year is not clear cut - despite my opinions, I still see that there are multiple potential winners, and there’s no clear cut champion. Many questions will be answered, and I’m looking forward to see some definitive answers!
Afterword
Thank you for reading all the way to the end of my article! Frankly speaking, I crunched this one out, but I’m still happy I managed to make one, and that’s what matters - hopefully I’ll have more preparation for my next article.
I had the opportunity to revitalise my CS2 podcast, The Brain Jar, with some guests - here’s one of the episodes if you want to have a listen. There’s no schedule or set plans but I’d love to make more episodes, and if you’re a voice who wants to speak your mind on takes, connect with me on Twitter and who knows - you may be on the next episode.