CS2: The Relative Importance Conundrum
All tournaments are equal, but some tournaments are more equal than others...?
Preamble
It’s the night after the Major semi-final, and for NiKo, it’s the end of the line. He looks wistfully at the Major trophy - yet another stamp on his Major failure loyalty card, and the paper’s becoming a little tattered. Not long before the window closes completely.
While checking the HLTV stats of the game to look for somebody else to blame (I promise this isn’t just a NiKo diss article…), he clicks on his profile and checks his trophy cabinet. ESL New York 2017, EPICENTER 2018, and who could forget Katowice and Cologne in the same year? Surely he’s delighted to have such a storied history as a player!
But no - it only serves to frustrate him. No doubt he would trade a great many of those arbitrary ELEAGUEs and BLASTs for a Major trophy - even winning Katowice again would only temporarily sate the emptiness of not having your name permanently etched in history as a Major winner.
In contrast to that, take HEROIC at ESL Pro League or IEM Dallas. Dare they dream to win such a prestigious event as an IEM? The lofty goal of that trophy seems almost unattainable, and merely reaching the final of either event would be inspiring for the always-underdog lineup’s confidence.
On the other side of the world, TheMongolz set their sights on ESL Challenger Jönköping. A series of tournaments so small it doesn’t even show up on your HLTV profile upon triumph, and yet no doubt winning it would be transformative for the young Asian squad - an undeniable proof of concept outside of their home region that they have been working towards for years. The diminutive trophy would feel much more magnanimous to them, I’m sure.
Of course, determined objectively, a fun and dynamic conversation about tournaments can turn into something quite droll. Yes, Majors are the most important, then you have Katowice and Cologne up next, and whatever else you win is just a shiny piece of silverware that you can cite on your stat sheet and a small buff towards your organisation’s social media engagements for the day. But I propose that alongside this dull and obvious opinion is a much more interesting conversation - “what does this tournament mean for this team?”
As we enter the open circuit of 2025 in under a year, I would like to build the framework for this concept in everyone’s minds. We will have ample tournaments and ample attendees with which to apply it in the future - and otherwise I fear everyone will grow tired of watching all the Counter-Strike events without the valuable subtext.
If you wish to challenge or support these ideas, be sure to send that feedback my way on my Twitter!
The Prestige Events
It only deserves a brief discussion, but the Katowice and Cologne trophies obviously remain at the top of the non-Major competition. The legacy of the trophies, prize pool, and best of five grand final all help elevate them beyond anything else. The first element, in my opinion, is the most important - it is why I believe that it would take a gargantuan sum of money for a CS2 World Cup style event, the likes of which is being held this year, to actually matter as much.
A minor note, which I alluded to at the beginning, is that teams who have already won the trophy will probably have a smaller desire to win - but this is only a minor factor, and pales in comparison to some of the other elements which I will discuss afterwards.
Home Town Heroes
Any professional will tell you that an event held in their home country carries added value as a result of the extra pressure to perform placed on you by fans and by yourself. For the majority of European players this is not very relevant - there has not been as much variety in European tournament locations recently, but I suspect this will change in the future.
Polish players talk about how much it means to them to perform at Katowice, and German players always want to attend Cologne, to such an extent that they bend roster rules and squeeze through the local qualifiers just to ensure they get there. For organisations that own teams from the same country as their company, this is doubly important for sponsors and merch sales.
This factor is one I would apply as a buff across the board whenever applicable. There are very few cases where a team, or indeed an individual, does not want to try harder to perform better for their home crowd - and their results, positive or negative, should have that much more impact as a story. Complexity going out last at IEM Dallas should be a top headline - if they go out last at IEM Stockholm, for example, it hardly makes a difference.
The Proof Of Concept
This is one of the most important factors for teams, and one that is not unique to any particular team. There are very few rosters that can escape the “proof of concept” importance check - the idea that a tournament result demonstrates the potential that the current iteration of a team has.
After roster changes, after streaks of bad results, before player breaks, during roster rumours - most teams find themselves in one or more of these buckets. Teams like BIG and HEROIC at ESL Pro League are looking to prove that they don’t need roster changes; that they have a formula for winning games that is reproducible and that can be reflected in results. Astralis, for example, are looking at this EPL trophy as a massive opportunity to prove that their insane pivot to a device AWP IGL approach is justified.
For teams like the aforementioned ones, the ongoing EPL is one of their most important events. Yet if you yielded to online discussions about the tournament you would simply come to the conclusion it is a long and boring studio LAN, with the shining light of one notch in the Intel Grand Slam if you win it. That may be true on the whole, but some players will be treating this like their personal Major - after all, if they do not prove something, it could be them sitting on the bench, unable to play the actual Major. It would be more appropriate to consider events like these through the lens of each team if you want to actually enjoy them.
The same angle is what makes it worthwhile to watch teams from smaller regions from time to time. Of course, being from the APAC region, I watch these teams because I know them, but I apply this concept when watching American teams as well. They’ve only got a few chances to test themselves against international opponents, so each individual event carries a LOT of weight (or, if your scene has no other teams that can qualify, each event carries no weight at all…). For teams like these, their successes are measured in rounds and maps, not playoffs.
The Era Hopefuls
This particular one is a double edged sword for reasons that are apparent, especially to those of you who have followed FaZe Clan in the past couple years. If your team has recently won an event, the next event represents a chance to go back to back. It’s not about the tournament itself at that point - it’s merely about winning at every opportunity, so that when someone in five years checks your Liquipedia page, they see nothing but gold first places.
But that same driving force can be an anchor sucking motivation out of your team. After you’ve won an event, you experience that high of accomplishing your goals - and while the energy leaves your body, the next event is right ahead, giving you no time to rest. If you make it all the way to the grand final again and win, your reward is that same rise and fall, but this time your exhaustion is multiplied.
It’s no wonder players like ropz drop in form - they’ve had to experience consecutive grand finals and are expected to display individual class every time. It’s not an unfair expectation, though. The respect you earn goes into the same bank that your expectations come from; you must have both. If you want people to go easy on you when you underperform then you have to be okay with being treated like any other player or team.
From a narrative perspective, I think this is a very delicate factor. Is the team dominant in their wins? If so, then extra emphasis and criticism is deserved when discussing their results (Spirit with donk, for instance). Does the team have an existing trophy cabinet? FaZe will hardly put their all into anything but Katowice, Cologne and the Major - expect less than 100% in every other tournament, because they’ve been there and done that in the past. Do they have a legacy to build? ZywOo and Vitality should be looking to win every single event and MVP if he is the best player in the world, and thus every event is an important chance to fill in a square on his bingo card.
Not Winning Is Unforgivable
The majority of teams fit into the “proof of concept” bucket, because they are either proving that they don’t need a roster change, or proving that the change they did make is the right choice. At the very top, however, it’s not about the formula or the roster - it’s about the expectation. ZywOo, m0NESY and donk are individuals who must win every single trophy they can, because their current skill level is at odds with their trophy cabinet. Strike while the hand is hot, because you don’t know when your time is spent.
It’s not about raw ranking more so than expectation based on organisations and individuals. MOUZ is a top 3 team according to HLTV but nobody would imply that semi-finals for them implies a crushing loss. Even NaVi, the reigning Major champions, would not be favourites at almost any tournament they attend, because nobody expects the miracle of Copenhagen to transform iM into a viable player again.
This is also where you sometimes have to separate the player from the team to really explain what you mean. From the perspective of players like flameZ, mezii, HooXi, nexa, and magixx, consistent playoffs appearances are fantastic for their personal expectations. Their curse is either being in the same team with individuals who cannot escape lofty expectations or being in an organisation that should be winning all the time.
The Synthesis of Factors
Let’s apply these sets of factors for the upcoming IEM Dallas 2024, as an exercise in making what is otherwise yet another IEM event something worth watching.
There are three North American organisations and teams - Liquid, Complexity, and M80 - so the assumption is they’ll put in an extra shift for this tournament and thus it’s worth it to watch them with more attention.
Virtus.pro (assuming they get their roster into Dallas) have made a roster change and are looking to prove their composition makes sense, and when you consider the expectations that electronic brings, this is very important for their trajectory.
G2, Vitality and Spirit are must-win teams, especially Spirit (same assumption as VP) since they will have missed ESL Pro League. HEROIC and BIG are trying to prove they don’t need more roster changes to improve; MOUZ also wish to prove they don’t need to change anything to win trophies, while Falcons look to justify their roster move and show an uptick. There are a number of great IGL sub-storylines that you can delve into here, like Snappi, tabseN, kyxsan, and so on if you want to talk about individual expectations beyond team expectations.
NaVi and FaZe can look to establish multiple trophies in a season, and while NaVi are far from an era team, FaZe could continue a grand final streak (depending on results in the interim) and solidify themselves as the team of the season.
9z and FlyQuest, being the minor region representatives, are fighting to prove their slots are not wasted. Monte is the hardest team to get excited for, but there are new individuals like Gizmy to pay attention to.
Not every one of these will interest you - in fact, some may seem like a stretch. But all you need is a few of these to start to form your own narrative while you watch the tournament, and it’ll go from “just another tournament” to something unique! Will MOUZ lift a trophy in front of a crowd? Will Spirit dominate as we expect them to? Can Complexity or Liquid bring it home in front of their domestic crowd? Suddenly, you might even be looking forward to the event.
Afterword
Thank you for reading the entire article! I’ve stopped worrying about whether people expect statistical analysis or some other slant from me - it’s my publication after all. Perhaps I’ll branch out into different kinds of articles. To the experienced watchers of CS this may seem obvious at times but I do think it’s an important concept that people are missing out on, so I wrote about it.
If you have some feedback or thoughts, direct them to my Twitter!