Explaining The MongolZ's Playoffs Losses

Doing my part as a dedicated APAC supporter and looking at each playoffs match, giving my personal stance and explaining the trajectory of the team.

Preamble

Counting from the Shanghai Major onwards, The MongolZ have started to enter Big Event playoffs. Unlike many other teams, however, this team is uniquely positioned in a variety of ways - some of which we will get into in this article. These angles change the usual conversations about roster moves, choking, mindsets and expectations that we often have surrounding teams that are at the cusp of greatness but are clearly suffering from some sort of absence.

Now that The MongolZ have won a few playoffs games and lost many more, let’s look at each match (which for once I have the benefit of having already watched every one) from the Major onwards and give my explanation, and conclude with my HONEST opinion of their chances moving forward. For more timely thoughts, check out my Twitter!

Shanghai Major vs MOUZ

This was the match that started a narrative we continue to run with to this day - the extraordinary Senzu choke.

A strong lead on Ancient gave way to an impressive comeback as MongolZ choked their way out of a competitive series - and Nuke never had MongolZ in a position to win.

Despite having played the group stage games in front of a smaller crowd, as everyone did in the PW Major, this was their first time in such a large arena, with a somewhat domestic crowd, and Senzu took it the hardest. People paint this loss as worse than it is, especially considering this was very late in the “MOUZ also chokes on stage” discussions and we know now they were on their way out of that conversation.

As such, I don’t find myself worried by this result - everyone gets a free pass in situations like these.

Kato 25 vs Eternal Fire

This match is commonly refuted by the phrase “Someone had to win”, and I think that’s unfortunately a fair assessment. While Eternal Fire (now Aurora) have a much older average age and should in theory have more experience, they are still collectively unable to pull it together in much the same way that The MongolZ are.

Even then, it was another attempt from The MongolZ to choke on Mirage, only really saved by the general absence of Eternal Fire and especially woxic.

I think that this victory was, if anything, a proof of concept. It’s not merely the fact they play in front of a crowd that affects them, but the combination of a number of factors (opponent, pressure, expectations, etc). Not least because the most experienced and long term members, bLitz and Techno, were the ones to really push the victory over the edge. However, I don’t use it as a trump card, because even here they should have won convincingly if they truly were unaffected by this sort of match - I consider them better across the board against EF.

Kato 25 vs Vitality

What can really be said about any playoffs match versus Vitality, especially the first one? This match was never in question.

In fact, I would consider this The MongolZ’s best attempt till date - while they definitely weren’t at peak form, the kill differential between the two teams was actually relatively close.

While watching, the impression was mostly “Vitality is just unplayable” rather than “wow, The MongolZ are really shitting the bed”, and I tend to agree. Especially considering that in general, Vitality is probably the worst possible opponent for The MongolZ, having an insane distribution of firepower as well as one strong superstar, this match went fairly well.

PGL Cluj vs Astralis

We’ve finally arrived at what I would describe as the lowest moment for The MongolZ fans across the globe - losing to a miserable Astralis team in the playoffs of a tournament where you were ostensibly the favourites to win the entire event.

I can tell you for sure that the stats do not do the match justice - as a team, The MongolZ were completely absent and divorced from any semblance of their existing calling cards. The instant executes and “pop-go” style was jilted and trades were nonexistent, the individuals failed to find any miracle rounds or even get regular kills where they were ordinarily favoured, they were never in the right place at the right time - it was all collectively terrible, almost like watching an entirely different team.

My devil’s advocate stance, or perhaps my cope, has always been that this was a combination of a long schedule and the expectations of winning an entire tournament being realistically possible. It’s easy to get your mentality in check when you don’t actually think you will win. This isn’t isolated merely to competing, and can be seen in all sorts of endeavours where you feel relaxed up until it clicks in your head that you actually stand a fair chance at doing whatever it is you are doing and it all comes crashing down right then and there.

The real problem is that ever since this point, The MongolZ have looked shaky and incoherent. While I won’t go over some of their group stage exits, suffice to say it looked like they were on the road to recovery and simply not quite healed yet from this specific performance.

For me, this constituted “strike one” in some ways - that in a clearly winnable match, the mental demons persisted and perhaps were amplified. The alternative stance is that this too was a novel experience for them and thus it’s a begrudgingly granted free pass, since they haven’t been the favourites in this scenario before. That’s too optimistic and gentle for my tastes. The MongolZ should have won and the fact they didn’t should continue to be present in their minds until they win an equivalent tournament in a crowd to shed this specific mental block.

IEM Melbourne vs Liquid

Having watched this in person (which I must mention as it was a fantastic memory to see them win) I think I’ve got a fairly good grasp of this particular playoffs victory. (It should be noted I’ve skipped the non-crowd playoffs such as EPL).

Anubis, while siuhy hasn’t had much time with it, is still Liquid’s home turf and their cohesion was clear. I expected more of a fight, and 3 rounds on T side Anubis is unforgivable independent of the other team’s excellence. Still, it’s acceptable and at the time I wasn’t worried going into Ancient.

Ancient was the first time Senzu activated in a high pressure environment - down a map and relied upon to frag, he had key multi-kills to bring the team to map 3. While he definitely underperformed afterwards, merely the demonstration that it is possible for him to do it is enough to prevent the boiling pot of milk from overflowing. It’s still on the heat, but he lifted it for just long enough to give me belief.

For better and for worse, map 3 was all 910. AWP multi frags, highlight moments, consistency, he had it all - and if the rest of his team was with him, this would have been a convincing stomp and I would be sitting here singing their praises. Instead, I’m cautiously optimistic at best. 910 is mechanically skilled and has done a great job smoothing the rough edges of his game for the many months he has been on this team. At the start of his tenure, he was liable to miss easy shots and didn’t have any map to map consistency, but I saw the vision and the difference is night and day now with how he is capable of playing. He still has the odd round where the illusion lifts and you realise the bit regarding his limited hours in game actually has real consequences, but every learning moment seems to actually make a difference.

The rest of the team, and especially Senzu and Techno, seemed unable to capitalise throughout the series, and I can’t really draw a team-wide conclusion here from the win. They beat a team they should have beat in slightly unconvincing fashion. If they can keep beating teams while playing worse than they usually do (dubbed their “B game” in common analyst parlance nowadays), what happens when they unlock their actual level?

IEM Melbourne vs Vitality

Go ahead and scroll back to the prior head to head in playoffs and you wouldn’t even need to have watched the game to know this was not the same as that. Sure, Vitality played well - essentially playing perfect CS in the given situation. But I would venture that what they really did was act as the safety net for The MongolZ to collapse into after repeated failures to do anything across the board.

This time, you could tell they were visibly nervous and shaken. Instant headshots turned into whiffed sprays, the consistent pressure of a mzinho palace lurk on Mirage was a non-factor, 910’s AWP never got a chance, and the match was never even lit for a clutch attempt.

I’m not disappointed that they lost to Vitality. It would have been delusional to expect them to win. My main problem is that at some point you have to consistently test them so we know it is actually just that they are better than you, and not that you are collectively losing to them in your head before you even play them. This is why I think the prior scoreline was more accurate and perhaps the newer match is more indicative of a downwards spiral in mentality against the world’s best on a stage.

So What Are You Trying To Say?

If you didn’t care about all of that and just want to hear a quotable conclusion, I’ve got you covered.

The MongolZ are a historic team in terms of their contribution to their country’s Counter-Strike legacy. They are also one of the youngest teams, so young that we’ve been quoting this statistic for a year and it still holds true because of how much younger they were at the beginning. Every step they take is novel to them and they have nobody to look towards to inject growth serum via experience - even maaRaa is on this journey alongside them and needs to adapt.

When watching them at their best, they look world class. Relatively simple yet well executed tactics, strong individuals who understand their positions well, and a one-minded approach to CS that makes them look well oiled across the board. However, at their worst, they can regress to that top 30 fringe team from two years ago who is terrified of where they’ve ended up.

If you know why I’ve included this guy we are on the same wavelength

So what’s the solution? Let’s quickly go through the suggestions.

Roster Moves?

I see no way that this could solve any of their problems in an obvious way. There are other talented Mongolian players, all of which are much less experienced and do not have the reps against international competition. Bringing another player up to speed when you’ve already come this far together and there’s no obvious individual liability seems illogical to me as a use of resources.

In my eyes, bLitz, mzinho, and 910 are irreplaceable right now. Techno suffers a lot for this team, and while he does struggle individually, it’s relatively sacrificial and I think you would be hard pressed to find another player to slot in and still be capable of occasionally turning up the way he does. Senzu, while he is the poster boy of their chokes, is also their strongest star in the lower pressure games and has clear potential. For now, the scales are firmly tipped in “keep giving him the chance” - we’ve seen one good map on the stage already and I’m hopeful for more.

Staffing Additions?

This is the most obvious “fix” that makes sense. I’m not caught up on their actual staff situation - they may be looking for a sports psychologist or some other related job, or there may actually not be someone suited for the job in Mongolia. Either way, this isn’t a solution, but a part of an overall process, and is definitely a good idea to at least try.

More Time Bro Please Just One More Tournament

Despite my provocative title I think this is the right idea. The MongolZ are uniquely positioned in that there is no pressure on them except the pressure they place on themselves. There is no team buying their players out, there is no rush to capitalise on a specific moment in time. While the fans may be used to a rapid pace and constant improvements or changes, as is common now in CS2 esports to expect, The MongolZ may well stay in the fringe playoffs tier for a year more before improving.

The most important thing is whether this conflicts their actual expectations - do The MongolZ want to win now? Or are they content with each attempt and see it as inevitable that they will eventually rise? Or alternatively, do they consider themselves incapable of rising further beyond? Time will answer these questions, and we must be okay with waiting.

My current view is that the most important thing The MongolZ can do is constantly make playoffs. Give yourselves every possible opportunity to be in front of the blinding lights and yelling fans against the best teams in the world. If you’re truly built for it, it’ll fall into place. As long as they don’t make a habit of group stage exits, even if it’s an entire year, I’ll be there every time saying “this one could be the breakthrough” - and I’ll restructure my stance once that time has passed.

Afterword

Thanks for reading another article of mine! This was a slipshod piece of my thoughts because I was a little drained from IEM Melbourne and this was fresh in my mind, so what better time to put it to “paper”? I hope the ‘Golz can bring it together…

Reach out to me on Twitter for live conversations, or better yet, my Discord (which is currently mostly talking about indie games, as I’ve been playing a lot).