Playing Devil's Advocate For Stage One At The BLAST Austin Major
I'm here to tell you why every team in this stage is going to do their best.
Preamble
The return to North America and the debut of the 32-team format coincide in making this year’s first CS2 Major a big talking point. What is undoubtedly more interesting to that for fans of Counter-Strike is the potential continuance of Vitality’s streak into the Major (and the deadly best of ones that await them). In the wake of that, it can easily feel like the first stage of the Major, containing a bunch of teams that nobody really wants to watch, is simply less exciting, inferior, and not worth your time. In order to challenge that perception, I’m going to look at every team in this stage and give you my best devil’s advocate position as to why they can win more, do better, and surpass expectations.
If you want to play along or have questions for me, send them over on my Twitter.
Stage 1’s Teams
HEROIC
Heroic doesn’t require me to begin my mental gymnastics - they’re on my 3-0 for the first stage! While I think LNZ is serviceable at best, and the core of yxngstxr, xfl0ud and SunPayus are decent, the true potential comes from tN1R. He dropped a 1.38 rated carry performance in their MESA Nomadic victory and has otherwise looked excellent.
Beyond their run in the first stage, I think compared to the field, they have a strong case for a stage 2 qualification berth. It’s at this point we have to mention two things - first, that sAw will be a massive factor against top teams in terms of injecting strategies and confidence at the right times, and second, that sAw and SunPayus are leaving for G2 right after the Major. Knowing that this is their last run as a team, I see no reason that they wouldn’t leave everything out on the table and try to make the playoffs - which is where my advocacy has to expire. You can use best of ones and one incredible rifler to great success against even top teams, but a full series in the playoffs is not imaginable even as a contrarian.
OG
OG’s Danish core is the most optimistic you can get. Chr1zN has some potential as a leader, formerly of the MOUZ academy roster, and Buzz won’t deliver incredible results but will at least provide some stability. nicoodoz in CS2 has been making a name for himself as an AWP who should probably just stick to the rifle.
The strongest angle I can take in advocacy of OG is that they have no glaring weakness. F1KU is actually okay as a supportive player, spooke (formerly of Johnny Speeds) isn’t terrible either - if they can hold their nerves in the Major they could easily make it through the first stage from EU talent consistency alone. Unfortunately I don’t think they have it in them to do much else, but I think a best of one upset victory in the second stage will be in their cards as teams like Falcons, FaZe, and VP will not take them as seriously and open the door for a map loss, especially since they’ve not warmed up.
Nemiga
Only one piece and angle in this team makes sense to me - 1eer. If the Belarusian IGL is capable of planning a game and making his players listen to him (I don’t think the rifle core here is particularly impressive, but it is all he has), there’s a chance they make it through this stage. Nemiga, much like most lower tier European teams, are capable of turning up in an inexplicable map which leaves you wondering whether they have any untapped potential before returning to the misplays and madness they were forged in. I won’t belabour the point, and I’ll say the best they can do is much the same as OG - take care of the international competition in stage 1 and take a freak map off of the top teams in the next stage before rightfully bottoming out.
BetBoom
Having had this season to work with Boombl4, BetBoom prove to be a source of actual potential upsets which I have more faith in, unlike Nemiga and OG. We know Ax1Le has performed in the past, and Magnojez is touted as a versatile rifler talent who can perform on his own terms. I think they should make it through this first stage without question, but actually think that the second stage could be doable for them as well!
Remember that Boombl4 is actually fairly experienced at this point and when it comes to the LAN matches at the Major, it is not out of the question (especially in a national team where the words can flow freely) that he unlocks a new gear both individually and in activating his teammates. This also hinges on Ax1Le performing and rolling back the years, but all of these are achievable metrics (and we haven’t even had to talk about zorte, who has been nothing but potential for a while now and may realise it here). While wins in the third stage are beyond them, a few best of ones against top teams and a good draw could see BetBoom in the third stage.
Metizport
Even without players like nilo (where is that guy, anyway?) and susp, there’s something to like about Metizport. The return of hampus to a Major, alongside former teammate Plopski, could herald the resurgence of Swedish CS!
Okay, that’s too far, but they (alongside isak who was a part of the GamerLegion team that made it to a Major final) have a fair amount of experience to flex on the rest of the teams in the first stage. I have no faith whatsoever in the rest of the team (and my faith in isak is minimal) but I can see hampus turning into a fragging leader for a stage and maybe one map of the next before reality sets back in.
B8
Without Jambo, B8 still have a lot to get excited about. npl genuinely looks like a talented fragging leader, and headtr1ck has been getting his reps in through the lower tier blender after his time spent on NiP. The other players are nothing special but pull their weight enough for me to believe they can breeze through the first stage, and take the second stage as a true test. I think they will run out of steam and be outmatched (envisioning 2-3 as the stage 2 Swiss score), but I suspect npl will continue to perform and advertise himself as a young IGL in a period of leadership scarcity.
Imperial
The most exciting thing about this team, by far, is try - we’ve been waiting to see him live up to his potential ever since he was playing on 9z and have yet to witness this potential. VINI also has turned into a relatively acceptable leader - but decenty and noway are alright, I frankly have no idea why chayJESUS is on this team, considering the amount of skilled riflers in Brazil.
Another team where the best I can imagine is a strong showing in the first stage - and if I’m being honest, I don’t see them having the same explosivity that some of the other upset teams in this stage have where a further result in stage 2 is reasonable. However, taking the best case scenario, try can level it up and get them one or two wins in the second stage.
Fluxo
I’ve been having a tough time with some of these teams, because quite frankly, they’re quite talented and are similarly matched with expectations. However, the same does not apply to Fluxo, whom I think are simply not impressive at all. Credit should be given to their strong domestic results but I simply don’t believe in arT or kye, and zevy always struck me as inconsistent (the other names I simply don’t know).
Even being in the position to qualify to stage 2 would be a win - I think they can win two matches in the first stage, through a good draw. That being said, I’ve got them going 0-3, so despite my attempts at pretending otherwise, you can see what I truly think.
Legacy
Called in as a replacement for BESTIA’s visa mistakes, Legacy are actually better than people give them credit for. Despite losing online in the MRQ, they performed admirably against Vitality and took a map off of 3DMAX in IEM Dallas. Call me crazy, but I think Legacy could even make it through the first stage despite not expecting to be here. That alone would exceed most expectations including mine.
Aside from the potential of dumau and latto, who have been touted for a while now, I think the mere fact they got a chance where they previously thought there was none will drive them further than their competitors, even if only a slight amount, to defy expectations.
Complexity
The visa issues rear their ugly head, but just because hallzerk isn’t here doesn’t mean Complexity is defanged (although it’s been a while since FaNg was on this team). junior is fine enough (and being given the chance to play at the Major will light a different kind of fire under you) and the riflers, nicx and czxi, have been improving their floor.
Grim is farming in his return to the star role, and JT has consistently shown he is one of the most put together IGLs in CS2 despite the level of team he is on. I think they’ll find the first stage easy, and will completely flop in the second stage - they need hallzerk in the team to make a dent against better teams, and junior won’t cut it. I suppose the devil’s advocate take here is that they’ll look dominant in the first stage due to how long JT has had to implement his vision and the time the riflers have spent learning it (plus, it’s the American Major…)
Wildcard
For a “North American” team with two North Americans, Wildcard may still need the domestic buff more than anyone else. There’s plenty to believe in when you look at this team, from susp’s rifling to stanislaw’s experience slowly shining through, but what I’m looking towards is JBa to finally activate. It’s been a number of tournaments where we’ve watched JBa simply play scared and crumble at big LANs (take a look at his performance at PGL Cluj for instance), but returning home might be what it takes to activate the next level of performance.
That aside, Wildcard have actually played top teams a fair amount and have had the chance to be truly tested, and in many cases, destroyed. stanislaw himself said this affected how they see their own playbook and I believe that they can easily make it through the first stage, and with some tenacity, make it through the second stage if JBa actually activates.
NRG
The only way I can find it in my heart of hearts to believe in my 0-3 pick in NRG is to ride the domestic buff beyond all reasonable doubt. nitr0 is an incredibly decorated player who has been wasting away on this team, and while br0 is an imported player, the most he can do is slightly elevate their floor as a support and farm North America when the stakes are low.
To make it to the next stage, this team needs oSee to play like he did when JT was calling for him, and the rifler duo of HexT and Jeorge need to not simply brute force victories and actually be part of a more cohesive plan. Even with all that I simply think the best they can do is win a map or two before going down - their quality of CS is not high enough even for this stage.
Chinggis Warriors
Having followed Chinggis Warriors here and there, I think that despite being a relatively new team, having The MongolZ wave the flag should have them excited to show the world that the talent pool can run deep.
This team isn’t the example of that (I would mention ATOX, but that’s a sore spot right now…) but it has some exciting pieces, such as cool4st who can certainly pop off. I think they’ll have enough of a base alongside that individual potential to avoid coming in last and to play well against even some lower-tier EU competition - important to note they played B8, HEROIC, and SAW (whom they beat) in the MESA Nomadic Masters tournament recently, and were competitive in many of the halves they ended up losing - so there are plenty of games to review and study.
It’s not even out of this world if they can qualify for stage 2, given that I think they have confidence they can beat all non-European teams and may thus sneak in 3-2.
FlyQuest
My age old nemesis…supporting my domestic team. FlyQuest have glaring issues in their team (Liazz, mostly) but otherwise are a decent spread of rifle talent with nettik stepping in. Assuming INS can at least call as good as he did when he was the IGL prior to dexter, this team can provide more upset value than that lineup did.
I have no problem predicting their stage 1 victory, and honestly think they could sneak through stage 2 towards the bottom of the Swiss system. regali is individually talented and nettik is actually one of the best players from the region since jks but was an onliner/choker for a while on teams like Rooster. They stand no chance against a real top team but can otherwise beat teams like VP (whom they already have beat), FURIA, and paiN in stage 2.
Lynn Vision
Lynn Vision’s performance at IEM Dallas was sadly much of what I expected. While z4kr is still quite talented and Starry continues to have his moments, the rest of this team is constantly average (which means when they have to play internationally, it turns into a very red post-match rating review). Lynn Vision are rarely the “sudden” team to perform and I think I can generally get the picture of their form from results, and this current roster seems to be on the way out.
That being said, they are still full of enough talent to survive the NRGs and Fluxos of the world. Much like I think FlyQuest can sneak through Stage 2, Lynn Vision can sneak through Stage 1 by avoiding teams like HEROIC and B8 who will comprehensively thrash them, and instead dealing with the leftovers like Legacy, NRG, and Fluxo.
TYLOO
It seems like teams have been sleeping on TYLOO as they have been out of our radar internationally for a little while, having only seen them at EPL 21 where they gained support and played quite well. Since then, apart from some strange qualifier losses, they have been cleaning up the domestic scene and in recent events have beaten all other APAC teams consistently.
For a team packed with rifler talent (and Jee is pretty decent these days as well!), I’m surprised to see that TYLOO isn’t a consensus pick for a stage 1 victory. In fact, I think they can make it through Stage 2 (as long as FaZe or Falcons don’t meet them in back to back qualification games) and test some teams in Stage 3. Especially in best of ones, where they have definite upset potential, I think TYLOO will go quite far.
Conclusion
The Major is supposed to be the host to the best teams in the world, and the fact that the earliest stages host teams that don’t fit this bill has some people concerned about the merit of having a 32 team major at all.
However, world cups and global competitions often have nations or teams that qualify yet cannot do much beyond that - the joy of competition at this level is sometimes merely making it there, and the chance of seeing a team from the lowest stages overperform.
I think the Major’s opening stage is a nice warm-up and a chance for these teams to get a spotlight they may not otherwise be granted, and for some of these teams to prove they are more than what the world thinks they are. For the viewers, they don’t have to watch if they don’t care - but the allure of a diamond Pick’em coin and national representation may make it worthwhile nonetheless, and some of the above storylines should help give you another reason to stay invested in what may be one of the less interesting stages of the CS2 Major.
Afterword
Thanks for reading my latest article! I’ll freely admit this was a last resort but an incredibly busy month hit me. However, I might write more in the lead-up to the Major, so look out for potentially bonus Major articles! If you want to have more detailed conversations, the Discord has room for that (beware non-CS discussions about anime, indie games, and so on).